Chronology of Findings
Because of the volume of publications now coming out on COVID-19 - this list makes no attempt to be exhaustive. More articles can be found by checking out some of the links on our External Resources page. If you notice something missing, click the contribute button at the bottom of this page and let us know.
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May 12, 2020
Taking into consideration all causes of death, estimated COVID-19 would cause 18,000 to 588,000 excess deaths in the UK depending how much of the population became infected.
Estimated even the best case scenario for the effects of COVID-19 could indirectly cause over 250,000 child deaths and 12,000 maternal deaths in low and middle income countries. Worst case this could be as high as 1.1 million child deaths and 56,000 maternal deaths.
May 11, 2020
May 7, 2020
Analysis of deaths from 17 million NHS patients showed that males, those with existing conditions, and from asian or black ethnicities are more vulnerable to COVID-19.
April 29, 2020
April 16, 2020
Analysis of 21,522 fatalities in Europe showed 0.1% were below the age of 40. 12.8% were aged 40-69, and 84.8% were 70 years or older.
A sample of 2,653 cases from Italy showed a mean age of 63.2 and a median time from symptom onset to diagnosis of 4 days. 40.5% were hospitalised and of those 37.4% had a comorbidity. 8.1% of cases died and for case that had up to 4 weeks of follow up this was higher. Comorbidities had a stronger association with mortality than with hospitalisation.
April 14, 2020
April 13, 2020
A literature review of existing pharmacologic research into COVID-19
April 10, 2020
In a sample of 168 patients who died in China. The media age was 70. 95.8% were older than 50 years. 74.4% of patients had at least 1 comorbidity.
April 8, 2020
From a sample of 365 children tested in Madrid, 41 were found positive. 60% were hospitalised. 9.7% admitted to ICU. Only 1 child had a previous condition. No patients died.
April 7, 2020
Small study of 34 patients analyses various bio-markers and hints at impacts COVID-19 may have on additional organs such as the lever and heart. Analysis showed many biomarkers had not returned back to normal levels in those returning home.
April 6, 2020
April 3, 2020
Closing schools may increase mortality rates
A number of asymptomatic cases were identified in initial testing. Consecutive testing showed many of these went on to develop symptoms
April 2, 2020
Time to hospitalisation after symptom onset decreased from 4.4 days to 2.6 days as people became more familiar with the outbreak. The average time someone showed symptoms was 5.2 days. It took and estimated 3 weeks for China to get the disease below R1
There are few reports of laboratory confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic. To date there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This doesn't mean that it isn't occurring.
March 31, 2020
March 30, 2020
Average time till death after showing symptoms was 17.8 days and till hospital discharge 24.7 days. Crude fatality rate for China is estimated at 3.67% however after further adjustments and analysis the best estimate is 1.38%. Older age groups showed much higher fatality rates. Infection fatality ratio was estimated at 0.66%. Estimates of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up 18.4%.
March 27, 2020
Examination of a cluster of 167 cases coming out of long-term care facility in Washington showed hospitalisation rates around 50% and a fatality rate of 33.7%.
March 26, 2020
March 24, 2020
March 19, 2020
R0 estimated at 2.6. Genetic sequence analysis did not find evidence of a very large hidden burden of infection being debated at the time.
From a sample of 70 survivors, 94% of CT scans showed lung disease on discharge
March 18, 2020
Not all countries have the same capacity to defend again outbreaks. International Health Regulations are a set of regulations designed to align countries in a way that can help in events such as pandemics. This report looks at some aspects of how prepared different countries are
March 16, 2020
March 13, 2020
First US case passes infection on to husband but not others
March 12, 2020
March 11, 2020
Estimate that the R0 for COVID-19 in China was 2.35 before travel restrictions and then moved down to 1.05 one week after. Estimated that once there was at least four independently introduced cases there was more than a 50% chance the infection will establish within that population.
Old people more vulnerable. People with comorbidities more likely to be hospitalised and result in fatalities. Average shedding of the virus for survivors was 20 days and COVID-19 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed viral shedding was 37 days. Viral shedding is associated with being infectious to others.
March 5, 2020
February 28, 2020
WHO Report comes out with their initial epidemiological findings. Median age 51 years. R0 estimated at 2-2.5. Only 2.4% of cases below 18 years of age. Symptoms are said to be Fever and Cough 87.9% and 67.7% of cases. Cases becomes symptomatic 5-6 days from infection. Approximately 80% have a mild disease, 13.8% severe and 6.1% critical. Whilst asymptomatic cases were reported the majority then went on to develop disease. True asymptomatic cases appears rare. Those above 60 years old and with comorbidities at risk. Fatality rate was 3.8% but varies by location. 5.8% in Wuhan and 0.7% in other parts of China. Mortality varied with age. 80 years 21.9%. Median time nationally from symptom onset to case confirmation came down from 12 days to 3 days by early Feb.
February 24, 2020
Looking at those who became critically ill, average wage was 59.7, 61.5% had died at 28 days. The average time from ICU admission to death was 7 days. Those who died were older - average age 64.9 years. 81% developed ARDS and 94% required ventilation. Most patients had organ function damage.
February 20, 2020
Median age of patients was 46 years old. Few patients were younger than 15. Delays between symptom onset and seeking care in mainland China moved from 5 days to 2 days from Jan 18 to 31st.
February 13, 2020
Feb 1, 2020
January 31, 2020
Estimated the R0 to be 2.68 with 75,815 infected in Wuhan. The disease doubling every 6.4 days. Suggest the epidemics growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag behind Wuhan of 1-2 weeks.
January 30, 2020
Virus genome shows dissimilarity from SARS-CoV and closest relationship to two Betacoronavirus found in bats back in 2018. Showed similar receptor bindings that contributed to making SARS-CoV dangerous.
49% of patients examined had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age was 55.5 years. 51% had chronic diseases. Symptoms showed fever and cough in 83% and 82% of cases. 75% showed pneumonia in both lungs. 17% developed ARDS. 11% patients died of multiple organ failure.
Second WHO Emergency Committee
January 24, 2020
By Jan 2nd, 41 patients had been identified with COVID-19. 73% were men. 32% had underlying diseases. Median age was 49. 66% had been exposed to Huanan Seafood Market. Fever and cough showed up in 98% and 76% of cases respectively. 100% got pneumonia. 32% were admitted to ICU and 15% died.
A family of 6 were found to have contracted COVID-19 between Dec 29 - Jan 4 and demonstrated person-to-person transmission. Throat swabs were negative but RT-PCR testing showed an unknown virus confirmed to be COVID-19. They showed symptoms 3-6 days after exposure.
January 21, 2020
January 20, 2020
January 12, 2020
January 11-12, 2020
December 31, 2019
December 28-29, 2019
December 26, 2019