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This platform seeks to provide the best possible support to improve both the health and economic outcomes from the COVID-19 pandemic. All contributions are welcome to better serve this goal. Please don't hesitate to send through relevant info using the form below. Before submitting, please make sure to check the accuracy of any information against reliable data sources, journals and other relevant publications.

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Chronology of Findings

Because of the volume of publications now coming out on COVID-19 - this list makes no attempt to be exhaustive. More articles can be found by checking out some of the links on our External Resources page. If you notice something missing, click the contribute button at the bottom of this page and let us know.

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May 12, 2020

Estimating 1-year Mortality

Taking into consideration all causes of death, estimated COVID-19 would cause 18,000 to 588,000 excess deaths in the UK depending how much of the population became infected.

Estimating Maternal & Child Mortality Indirect Impacts

Estimated even the best case scenario for the effects of COVID-19 could indirectly cause over 250,000 child deaths and 12,000 maternal deaths in low and middle income countries. Worst case this could be as high as 1.1 million child deaths and 56,000 maternal deaths.

May 11, 2020

Discussing Immunity Post-Infection

We don't yet know if you can achieve immunity.

April 8, 2020

Chinese effects of management outside of Hubei

Preparedness makes a big difference. Outside of Hubei Province where the disease originated, the rest of China was able to take measures to reduce the spread and mortality rates.

April 3, 2020

Asymptomatic vs Pre-Symptomatic cases in a Washington cluster

A number of asymptomatic cases were identified in initial testing. Consecutive testing showed many of these went on to develop symptoms

April 2, 2020

Analysing transmission in China outside Hubei

Time to hospitalisation after symptom onset decreased from 4.4 days to 2.6 days as people became more familiar with the outbreak. The average time someone showed symptoms was 5.2 days. It took and estimated 3 weeks for China to get the disease below R1

WHO notes on Asymptomatic vs Pre-Symptomatic cases

There are few reports of laboratory confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic. To date there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This doesn't mean that it isn't occurring.

March 30, 2020

Estimating COVID-19 severity from 37 countries

Average time till death after showing symptoms was 17.8 days and till hospital discharge 24.7 days. Crude fatality rate for China is estimated at 3.67% however after further adjustments and analysis the best estimate is 1.38%. Older age groups showed much higher fatality rates. Infection fatality ratio was estimated at 0.66%. Estimates of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up 18.4%.

March 26, 2020

Estimating Australian ICU beds needed

Based on overseas data and current trajectory, Australia should seek to control the spread of COVID-19 in order to ensure there are enough ICU beds available.

March 19, 2020

Estimating R0 and Asymptomatic likelihood

R0 estimated at 2.6. Genetic sequence analysis did not find evidence of a very large hidden burden of infection being debated at the time.

March 18, 2020

Comparing country readiness

Not all countries have the same capacity to defend again outbreaks. International Health Regulations are a set of regulations designed to align countries in a way that can help in events such as pandemics. This report looks at some aspects of how prepared different countries are

March 16, 2020

Investigation of three clusters in Singapore

Symptoms confirmed similar to China data, incubation showing an average of 4 days and the serial interval between transmission pairs 3 and 8 days.

March 11, 2020

Early estimates on COVID-19 transmission and control

Estimate that the R0 for COVID-19 in China was 2.35 before travel restrictions and then moved down to 1.05 one week after. Estimated that once there was at least four independently introduced cases there was more than a 50% chance the infection will establish within that population.

February 28, 2020

WHO Report from Feb 16-24 Mission

WHO Report comes out with their initial epidemiological findings. Median age 51 years. R0 estimated at 2-2.5. Only 2.4% of cases below 18 years of age. Symptoms are said to be Fever and  Cough 87.9% and 67.7% of cases. Cases becomes symptomatic 5-6 days from infection. Approximately 80% have a mild disease, 13.8% severe and 6.1% critical. Whilst asymptomatic cases were reported the majority then went on to develop disease. True asymptomatic cases appears rare. Those above 60 years old and with comorbidities at risk. Fatality rate was 3.8% but varies by location. 5.8% in Wuhan and 0.7% in other parts of China. Mortality varied with age. 80 years 21.9%. Median time nationally from symptom onset to case confirmation came down from 12 days to 3 days by early Feb.  

Analysing feasibility of controlling COVID-19

The more infectious a disease the more important it is to contact trace and isolate. The delay between when a person notices symptoms and then how quickly they isolate made one of the biggest differences.

January 31, 2020

Estimated COVID-19 domestic and international growth

Estimated the R0 to be 2.68 with 75,815 infected in Wuhan. The disease doubling every 6.4 days. Suggest the epidemics growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag behind Wuhan of 1-2 weeks.

January 22-23, 2020

First WHO Emergency Committee meeting

January 21, 2020

WHO Situation Report #1

First situation report published by WHO. 278 cases and 6 deaths