Chronology of Findings
Because of the volume of publications now coming out on COVID-19 - this list makes no attempt to be exhaustive. More articles can be found by checking out some of the links on our External Resources page. If you notice something missing, click the contribute button at the bottom of this page and let us know.
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May 12, 2020
Taking into consideration all causes of death, estimated COVID-19 would cause 18,000 to 588,000 excess deaths in the UK depending how much of the population became infected.
Estimated even the best case scenario for the effects of COVID-19 could indirectly cause over 250,000 child deaths and 12,000 maternal deaths in low and middle income countries. Worst case this could be as high as 1.1 million child deaths and 56,000 maternal deaths.
May 7, 2020
Analysis of deaths from 17 million NHS patients showed that males, those with existing conditions, and from asian or black ethnicities are more vulnerable to COVID-19.
April 16, 2020
Analysis of 21,522 fatalities in Europe showed 0.1% were below the age of 40. 12.8% were aged 40-69, and 84.8% were 70 years or older.
A sample of 2,653 cases from Italy showed a mean age of 63.2 and a median time from symptom onset to diagnosis of 4 days. 40.5% were hospitalised and of those 37.4% had a comorbidity. 8.1% of cases died and for case that had up to 4 weeks of follow up this was higher. Comorbidities had a stronger association with mortality than with hospitalisation.
April 10, 2020
April 8, 2020
From a sample of 365 children tested in Madrid, 41 were found positive. 60% were hospitalised. 9.7% admitted to ICU. Only 1 child had a previous condition. No patients died.
April 6, 2020
April 3, 2020
March 30, 2020
Average time till death after showing symptoms was 17.8 days and till hospital discharge 24.7 days. Crude fatality rate for China is estimated at 3.67% however after further adjustments and analysis the best estimate is 1.38%. Older age groups showed much higher fatality rates. Infection fatality ratio was estimated at 0.66%. Estimates of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up 18.4%.
March 27, 2020
March 11, 2020
Old people more vulnerable. People with comorbidities more likely to be hospitalised and result in fatalities. Average shedding of the virus for survivors was 20 days and COVID-19 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed viral shedding was 37 days. Viral shedding is associated with being infectious to others.
February 28, 2020
WHO Report comes out with their initial epidemiological findings. Median age 51 years. R0 estimated at 2-2.5. Only 2.4% of cases below 18 years of age. Symptoms are said to be Fever and Cough 87.9% and 67.7% of cases. Cases becomes symptomatic 5-6 days from infection. Approximately 80% have a mild disease, 13.8% severe and 6.1% critical. Whilst asymptomatic cases were reported the majority then went on to develop disease. True asymptomatic cases appears rare. Those above 60 years old and with comorbidities at risk. Fatality rate was 3.8% but varies by location. 5.8% in Wuhan and 0.7% in other parts of China. Mortality varied with age. 80 years 21.9%. Median time nationally from symptom onset to case confirmation came down from 12 days to 3 days by early Feb.
February 24, 2020
Looking at those who became critically ill, average wage was 59.7, 61.5% had died at 28 days. The average time from ICU admission to death was 7 days. Those who died were older - average age 64.9 years. 81% developed ARDS and 94% required ventilation. Most patients had organ function damage.
February 20, 2020
Median age of patients was 46 years old. Few patients were younger than 15. Delays between symptom onset and seeking care in mainland China moved from 5 days to 2 days from Jan 18 to 31st.
January 30, 2020
49% of patients examined had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age was 55.5 years. 51% had chronic diseases. Symptoms showed fever and cough in 83% and 82% of cases. 75% showed pneumonia in both lungs. 17% developed ARDS. 11% patients died of multiple organ failure.
January 24, 2020
By Jan 2nd, 41 patients had been identified with COVID-19. 73% were men. 32% had underlying diseases. Median age was 49. 66% had been exposed to Huanan Seafood Market. Fever and cough showed up in 98% and 76% of cases respectively. 100% got pneumonia. 32% were admitted to ICU and 15% died.